Our Journey from Paris COP21 to Net Zero

As the dust is settling from Paris COP21, I want to gaze back into that whirlwind, where I was pleased to participate as a speaker and delegate on behalf of Autodesk.

Warren Karlenzig presents on Autodesk's Impact 360 and Rapid Energy Modeling at the "Getting to Zero by 2050" event at the French Building Federation in Paris, on December 9, 2015

Warren Karlenzig presents on Autodesk’s Impact 360 and Rapid Energy Modeling at the “Getting to Zero by 2050″ event at the French Building Federation in Paris, on December 9, 2015

Architecture 2030 organized a well-attended Paris symposium during COP21, “Getting to Zero by 2050: How to Decarbonize the Built Environment,” where I presented Autodesk’s new Insight 360. I described how this whole-building analysis, cloud data and building information management model simulation, in conjunction with Revit or Formit Pro, can enable easier Architecture 2030 building energy standard adoption. The 2030 standard is 70 percent below national median rates for building energy use.

Impact 360, through optimization of the architectural, engineering and construction design cycles, ultimately moves the industry toward its net zero goal for operational energy by in essence game-ifying whole building systems designs, including passive and active solar, heating and cooling, and design forms.

My presentation concluded with a demonstration of how Autodesk’s Insight 360 and Rapid Energy Modeling (with compatibility on the InfraWorks 360 platform) is advancing the capacity of smart, sustainable city planning and analysis. One example included the capability for “touch-less” single-building energy efficiency analysis in New York City. I also highlighted district-scale energy renovation planning and prioritization in Washington DC’s Central Business District. After the presentation, Terri Wills of the World Green Building Council adeptly moderated our panel.

On this tenth day of the climate summit, with an international deal hovering, Ed Mazria, founder and CEO of Architecture 2030, laid out the global roadmap for built environment decarbonization in clear, compelling imagery and charts. Other speakers, including the World Bank Group’s UN Climate Envoy, Rachel Kyte, called for a “cleaner, more inclusive future” before she was off to another round of negotiations at the official UN site in the suburban aerotropolis of Le Bourget.

Ed Mazria, CEO of Architecture 2030, and Warren Karlenzig of Autodesk, after the Paris COP21 event "Getting to Zero by 2050"

Ed Mazria, CEO of Architecture 2030, and Warren Karlenzig of Autodesk, after the Paris COP21 event “Getting to Zero by 2050: How to Decarbonize the Built Environment”

Chen Zhen, secretary-general of China’s lead architectural alliance, who recently presided over an accord with Architecture 2030 and dozens of design firms, highlighted the necessity for carbon reductions through ratcheting up planning and design standards, including green building certification.

The need to develop better energy efficiency investment models and tools dominated the wish list of “Getting to Zero” symposium chair Benoit Labot, executive director of the International Partnership of Energy Efficiency Cooperation (IPEEC), but was likewise invoked by Mazria and Peter Sweatman of Climate Strategy Partners.

Despite the recent Paris tragedies, acknowledged with public shrines at the attack sites—and random street sorties by the French army–the city was vividly alive.

Private pageantry, global diplomacy, spirited philosophical and technical discussions, and of course Week 2 champagne flourished throughout the City of Light. From the heavily guarded, elegant medieval-era Hotel de Ville (City Hall), where hundreds of mayors met and celebrated a decarbonization pledge, to the postmodern Le Bourget airplane hangar (a modern-day Le Corbusier?), to the resolute street-side cafes of the Left and Right Banks, Paris was an ever-refined and dignified impresario.

Paris Hotel de Ville (City Hall) external security on December 4, 2015 during COP21 Global Mayoral Summit

Paris Hotel de Ville (City Hall) external security on December 4, 2015 during COP21 Global Mayoral Summit

Global mayors celebrate Mayoral Summit at COP21 in Paris Hotel de Ville (City Hall) on December 4, 2015

Global mayors celebrate Mayoral Summit at COP21 in Paris Hotel de Ville (City Hall) on December 4, 2015

Yes, retailers in the Champs-Élysées and other fashionable districts groused about a marked disruption of prime holiday shopping caused by the passing motorcades and security gauntlets. Nevertheless, most of the city and its vast suburbs, even the now-notorious Saint Denis, were accommodating and gracious.

In terms of big picture, the best test of success can be evidenced in the reaction to the Paris Climate Agreement, which may have already produced a number of market and policy outcomes:

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My TEDx Talk: Collective Intelligence for Sustainable Cities

Warren Karlenzig at TEDx Mission

TEDx Mission recently invited me to speak at their San Francisco event on how cities are using collective intelligence approaches to address climate change and climate change adaptation. Crowdsourcing and savvy planning are producing healthier quality of life and more resilient urban economies.
The talk drew upon my experience with Common Current, which is working with governments, the private sector and Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) globally on urban sustainability master planning, policy and technology around energy, water, infrastructure, mobility, land use and economic issues.
An underlying premise is that as we increasingly become an urban planet, diverse cities will provide the key to sustainability innovations. Others, such as Asian Development Bank’s Guanghua Wan and UCLA’s Matthew Kahn in a report released last week (pdf), “Key Indicators for the Pacific (2012)“, have made similar observations.
Common Current is now helping Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory design indicators software for China’s Ministry of Urban Rural Development so China can better manage its 654 cities as “Low Carbon Ecocities.” China has been leading the trend toward urbanization, going from approximately 20 percent urbanites in 1980, to 53 percent now, to an estimated 70 percent by 2030. In our lifetimes, China has already experienced the fastest and largest mass migration of humans in the history of Earth.
Within this dynamic context, Common Current collaborates extensively with the United Nations, China, South Korea, Japan and the United States, as well as individual cities and communities, on green urban development policy and projects.
As you will see in the TEDx talk, effective strategy and management by city leaders is critical, but bottom-up approaches are also having surprisingly dramatic and replicable impacts that address climate change and resilience.
Climate change has been shown to be linked to prolonged drought, more frequent and damaging heat waves, record number of high temperatures (a 2-to-1 ratio over record lows in US over past decade), wildfires, record urban flooding, record urban rainfall amounts and record deadly superstorms, including violent tornadoes.
Nonetheless, on every inhabited continent, legions of talented and dedicated urban citizens (yes, suburbanites are included) are acting to slow climate change and protect us from its worst impacts through collective crowdsourcing, large-scale citizen participation and social media.
As you will see in the TEDx talk, green urbanization utilizing collective intelligence will assist a needed turnaround from our current plight. Instead of needlessly facing the brink of a volatile future completely unprepared, we are beginning to experience how the whole is indeed greater than the sum of its individual parts.

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Cities win big in leaked agenda for UN Rio+20

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A leaked agenda for the United Nations Rio+20 conference places urban sustainability in a major role for UN member nation Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) put forth for ratification this June. The document acknowledges that cities are on par with nations in terms of implementing and measuring sustainability progress over the next 18
years–the-make-or-break period for mitigating and adapting to global
climate change.

The Rio+20 agenda, leaked today in the UK’s The Guardian under the Ogilvy Mather
promoted slogan “The Future We Want,” lays out ten areas for new
Sustainable Development Goals that will be released in Rio; urban sustainability is one of the key goals (other nine major categories include climate change, food security, water, green jobs, oceans, natural disasters, forests and biodiversity, mountains, and chemicals and waste).

The Rio+20 draft agenda states: “We recognize the need to integrate sustainable urban development policy as a key component of national sustainable development policy and, in this regard, to empower local authorities….We recognize that partnerships among cities have emerged as a leading force for action on sustainable development. We commit to support international cooperation among local authorities, including through assistance from international organizations.”

Officially, the
UN Conference on Sustainable Development,follow-up to the historic UN 1992 “Earth Summit,” also held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, isdedicated to marshalling the global Green Economy.

The leaked 19-page agenda calls for major global actions in financing, policy, technology implementation and collaboration in the face of global climate change and economic turmoil, developing-nation poverty and climate-exacerbated natural disasters. Continue reading

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Global Mayors Start Acting Upon UN’s Sustainable City Manual

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After providing the curriculum for training urban leaders from 12 Southeast and
Central Asian nations a few weeks ago (Manila, Philippines is pictured above), the United Nations is now globally launching the full content of the Shanghai Manual:A Guide for Sustainable Urban Development in the 21st Century.

The free publication features 47 global urban sustainability case studies and dozens of timely policy recommendations, especially when one considers the lack of global climate treaties due to tactics of “delaying nations” at the Durban climate talks, including the US. Instead, the Shanghai Manual is a practical tool intended to help the world’s major and medium-sized cities in developing nationsfurther advance their local green economies. The ”green economy” is also the key theme of the 2012 United Nations Conference on
Sustainable Development, known as Rio+20.

  Continue reading

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Richard Branson Invites Select Cities to Carbon War Room

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With the 2010 Winter Olympic Games as the setting, Virgin Airlines CEO Richard Branson, has invited cities including Vancouver to join a public-private consortium against global climate change. The idea is to use Branson’s Carbon War Room to rally cities as a vehicle for financing and capacity building, maybe a Keiretsu among Vancouver, San Francisco, Copenhagen, Chicago, London and Portland with whoever else walks down the tarmac from a corporate jet.

Sir Richard lauded Vancouver for reducing carbon emissions to 1990 levels, which it accomplished while increasing population 30 percent. According to the Vancouver Sun, Jose Maria Figueres, chairman of the Carbon War Room and former president of Costa Rica, the group is trying to, “create a new blueprint for the
creation of jobs, driving economies and greener cities around the
world.”

The Carbon War Room wants to harness the power of entrepreneurs to implement market-driven solutions to climate change. The war, according to their website, operates on “seven fields of battle”: electricity, transport, built environment, industry, land use, emerging economies and carbon management.

Branson also mentioned the depletion of oil in a speech, and the need to switch to alternative fuels. A new report funded by Virgin Airlines predicted shortages of oil in the global market by 2015, a prediction made by a former Shell oil CEO and reported here previously.

It’s not clear how the Carbon War Room will work with governments, whether it’s cities or other government entities. An example of a project or even a potential project would make the whole thing more real.

Vancouver under Mayor Gregor Robertson vowed in October to become the world’s greenest city by reducing its environmental footprint by a factor of four. Thanks to oodles of regional small-scale hydroelectric power and admirable city and transit planning, Vancouver has the lowest per-capita carbon emissions of any North American city.

South of the border Seattle, has pledged carbon neutrality by 2030, but apparently Seattle did not get the invitation, nor did sustainability focused burgs such as New York, Amsterdam or Toronto attend. Also conspicuously absent were Asian city reps. The mayor of Rio de Janeiro did attend a panel with Branson and other mayors earlier in the week.

I couldn’t find an explanation about how the Carbon War Room differs from or complements such efforts as the Clinton Climate Initiative’s C40 group. The C40 approach is working on all inhabited continents with some of the world’s largest cities, in a very similar vein: financing a $5 billion deal in 2007 on energy retrofitting older city buildings of New York, Chicago, Mexico City, Berlin, and Tokyo, for instance.

Most recently C40 cities announced in Copenhagen the creation of a C40 electric vehicle network as part of one of the few COP-15 “wins,” the Climate Summit for Mayors

Anyone active in the green economy is already seeing many alliances taking shape, a few which have employed savvy marketing and visible leadership. Winning green city public-private partnerships, however, will also draw upon compelling business cases and urban performance analytics while clearly putting forth their value proposition.

Richard Branson versus Bill Clinton, now there’s a match that could rival the Olympics. Could a more effective approach besides individual competition be a relay or other team event, perhaps?

Warren Karlenzig is president
of Common Current, an
internationally active urban sustainability strategy consultancy. He is
author
of
How Green
is Your
City? The SustainLane US City Rankings
and a Fellow at the Post
Carbon
Institute
.   

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Urban Form, Behavior Energy Modeling in China: Sim City for Real?

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One of the great challenges in urban planning and green building has been material life cycle energy use–how steel, concrete and wood products are produced and transported. Add to that the decisions people make once construction is finished, and you can rightly conclude that development standards have only scratched the veneer of total energy and sustainability impacts.

In addition to material climate and resource burdens, there are myriad consequences on life-cycle energy use that arise from commuting and transit choices, food and product consumption, and building heating or cooling.

Scientists at the US Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) have devised a tool that may soon provide governments and urban planners ways with which to model complete material, building and residents’ anticipated energy use.

After a proof of concept was applied to a Jinan, China, housing development, LBNL has integrated building life-cycle assessment (LCA) and urban form agent-based modeling tools to capture embodied, operational and behavioral aspects of urban form energy use and emissions.

With hundreds of new cities being planned or built in China, Indonesia and India, new tools such as LBNL’s will be critical in managing and reducing the energy, climate and environmental impacts of this unprecedented urban growth era.

Adding 1.1 billion people to new or growing Asian cities will produce more than half of the world’s increase in global climate change-causing greenhouse gases by 2027, according to the Asian Development Bank.

I met last week in the green hills of Berkeley with David Fridley, Nate Aden and Yining Qin at LBNL’s China Energy Group offices. The team demoed their new urban form and behavior energy analysis tool, describing how they based its performance on a variety of existing approaches in urban form-related analysis and life-cycle materials analysis.

The innovative aspect to the group’s project is that they combined these existing cutting-edge approaches with an extensive survey of 230 residental households in the Lu Jing Superblock.
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The researchers examined where Lu Jing Superblock (built in 2008) residents worked and went to school, how they commuted, where they shopped, what kinds of appliances they owned and how they used them, and even how much meat and what kind of products they ate.

The result was perhaps the closest-yet attempt at modeling and thus being able to forecast the complete energy needs of a segment of urban population. This allows an integrated assessment of required energy supply and expected impacts far beyond a single structure, energy type or industry.

It’s like Sim City, but for addressing real planning, energy, and environmental challenges, which is something I’ve always wanted to see.

Simulations ran through the four seasons, showing cumulative energy use based on household and individual appliance and transportation use, showing cars or buses shuttling between supermarkets, offices, schools and the Lu Jing Superblock.

Total energy use and types of energy used were continually graphed, and the final results showed a breakdown between how much energy would be used by the buildings for power, cooling and heating,  as well as for transportation, food and other areas.

The group sees the tool being used by policymakers trying to prioritize energy and climate regulations in land use, transportation, planning and energy. Urban planners are another obvious group of potential end users.

One planning issue unresolved for future iterations of the tool would be how water use and supply could be added to the analytical capabilities. Or perhaps LBNL’s energy tool can be combined with a software-based supply analysis and use forecasting tool for water. Water life-cycle analysis is an especially relevant issue when planning development in areas of India and Northern China that are facing climate-related drought and water supply shortages.

Still, the LBNL effort is significant in synthesizing existing tools and approaches on urban energy use into a single model that can help guide our world as we move into what is increasingly becoming the century of urbanization.

Warren Karlenzig is president
of Common Current, an
internationally active urban sustainability strategy consultancy. He is
author
of
How Green
is Your
City? The SustainLane US City Rankings
and a Fellow at the Post
Carbon
Institute
.  

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The Zero Net Carbon City of Masdar and the Dubai Credit Crisis

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What will the impacts be of the Dubai credit crisis on Masdar City, the famous living sustainability lab being built in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE), with the goal of being a zero-net carbon city?

So far the UAE capital city-state of Abu Dhabi, backed by significant revenues from oil production and collateral from reserves, has escaped the financial panic that has gripped neighboring Dubai. This bodes well for Masdar City, to which Abu Dhabi pledged $15 billion in investments; some are predicting the Dubai domino effect will not stir up dust in Masdar.

Abu Dhabi is looking at Masdar as being an international crucible for renewable energy and other sustainability technologies so that the UAE can make the transition from relying exclusively on fossil fuels to exporting technologies for future low-carbon/ low-water global energy and resource needs.

Masdar, which will have about 55,000 residents when complete before 2020, is notable in that it is serving as a large-scale test bed for new technologies in renewable energy, passive wind cooling, advanced materials design, innovative car-free transportation, water conservation and local food production.

The project is financed by funds through partners such as Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse and is being developed with technology corporations such as General Electric, the anchor tenant in Masdar’s Ecoimagination Center.

The Masdar Institute, which started classes this fall, is backed in a cooperative agreement with MIT (The MIT Technology Review is the source above that predicted things will be hunky dory in Masdar despite Dubai’s situation).

In terms of financing, The Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company, which is the government entity behind Masdar, announced in late September that it was seeking $600 million over seven years to fund construction of Masdar, where ground was first broken earlier this year. The government reported that it was not seeking an estimated $18 billion to finance the project, a figure that was published in other media reports.

Carbon credits and trading represents another form of project financing for Masdar. Last month Masdar was required by the United Nations to resubmit four out of six its carbon credit schemes that were part of the Clean Development Mechanism program of the Kyoto Protocol under the UN, which will become active in earning credits in June of next year.

Masdar is currently engaged in a wide assortment of R&D, including working with the nation of Spain to test large-scale concentrated PV solar power production in semi-tropical desert conditions. Masdar features some 30 manufacturers of PV and thermal solar products testing more than 40 solar related technologies alone.

With GE, the city is testing smart-grid technologies, including smart appliances, for home energy monitoring and energy conservation, among other technologies.

It seems that Masdar represents a completely different mindset than the ‘build it and they will come” approach taken in Dubai.

Instead of Dubai’s living-for-today mentality with giant indoor ski slopes and man-made islands built in the desert for jet-setting tourists, Masdar is more about channeling global innovation for both the future of its own nation’s economy and the growing demands of the world.

Still, many interested in clean technologies and sustainable cities will be watching Masdar  closely during the next few months to look for signs of how a critical sustainability innovation ecosystem will survive the stress tests of a volatile global financial ecosystem.

Warren Karlenzig is president of Common Current, an internationally active urban sustainability strategy consultancy. He is author of How Green is Your City? The SustainLane US City Rankings and a Fellow at the Post Carbon Institute

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